Planning Decisions, Inc.

THE BOTTOM LINE FROM CHUCK LAWTON

Demographic Structure & Education

Published Saturday December 15, 2007

Over the past several weeks, I have highlighted some significant shifts in Maine’s demographic structure and pointed out how we need to interpret commonly cited measures of change within the context of this changing structure if we are to understand the forces affecting us and design the most appropriate policy responses. Nowhere is this more important than in the area of education.

The Bureau of the Census annual community survey measures education in two ways—by enrollment and by attainment. The first notes the number of people aged three or older enrolled in school at various levels. In Maine in 2006, this amounted to nearly 307,000 people or about 24 percent of our household population (total population less those in group quarters such as dormitories, the military, prisons etc.). This puts us well below the national average of 27 percent enrollment.

But rather than reflecting some educational deficiency, this figure is merely another facet of our aging population. In Maine, the population under age 25—exactly those most likely to be enrolled in school—makes up only 28 percent of our total household population, whereas for the nation as a whole it makes up 33 percent of the total. If we measure our school enrollment against this under 25 population, we fare much better with 85 percent of our population enrolled compared to the national average of 83 percent. But even here, our aging population is evident. Within the overall total enrollment, Maine’s share of elementary students is below the national average and our share of secondary students is above the national average.

The second measure noted by the census is educational attainment of the population—the highest level of education achieved by each person. To enable comparisons among states and areas, the census standardizes this measure as percentages of the population age 25 or more. By this measure, Maine fares reasonably well. Of Maine residents age 25 or more, only 11 percent have less than a high school diploma, far less than the national average of 17 percent. Another 37 percent of Mainers have high school degrees compared to only 30 percent for the nation as a whole. Another 34 percent have associate, bachelors or graduate degrees, virtually equal to the national average.

While these figures suggest that Maine is performing relatively well compared to other states and the national average, they also are biased by our older population structure. Our measure of educational attainment benefits from the education many of our residents brought with them from other states. Comparing relative rates of enrollment, a somewhat different picture emerges.

In 2006, approximately 78,000 Mainers were enrolled in college, graduate or professional schools. This amounted to 25 percent of Maine’s population aged 3 or more enrolled in school, just slightly less than the national average of 26 percent. However this total amounted to only 8 percent of the state’s total population aged 25 and over, well below the national average of 10 percent. In other words, we would have to enroll nearly an additional 20,000 people in some form of higher education in order to reach the national average enrollment for our population aged 25 or more.

Another way of looking at this issue is to compare Maine’s current enrollment in higher education to our level of higher education attainment. In 2006, approximately 318,000 Mainers held associate, bachelors, graduate or professional degrees. This amounted to 34 percent of our population aged 25 or older, exactly equal to the national average. However, the 78,000 currently enrolled in some form of higher education amounted to only 24 percent of the 318,000 holding degrees, well below the national average of 30 percent. In other words our relatively average performance in higher education attainment is the result not of enrolling and graduating Maine residents but of attracting educated residents from away. More importantly, if we are to maintain even this “average” level of higher education attainment, we will have to continue to attract educated non-residents because our current enrollment per existing graduate is so far below the national average.

The obvious conclusion here is that Maine needs to do all we can to encourage more residents to seek higher education. The less obvious conclusion—and the one I want to emphasize—is that whenever we look at standard measures of comparison we must be clear exactly what they are measuring and how those measures apply to our particular demographic structure before coming to any conclusions.

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