THE BOTTOM LINE FROM CHUCK LAWTON
Long Term Goals of the Tourism Industry
Published Sunday October 28, 2007
For as long as I’ve been in Maine, the public policy goals for the tourism industry have been threefold—spread it around throughout the year so it’s not all concentrated in the summer, spread it around the countryside so it’s not all concentrated along the coast and spread it across more businesses so it’s not all concentrated in lodging and restaurants. Our goals have been to have visitors come throughout the year, to have them visit all parts of the state and to have them spend more money on stuff besides rooms and meals while they’re here.
Here are three snapshots to show how we’re doing. They compare 2006 (solid line) with 1986 (dotted line). All data are from the Maine State Planning Office’s reports on retail sales.
First, seasonality.
Figure 1
Figure 1 shows some modest progress. In 1986, lodging sales in August were more than three times as large as the monthly average for the entire year. In 2006, August sales were “only” 2.6 times the monthly average, and July sales were almost the same. Overall, the July-September quarter accounted for 55 percent of the year’s total lodging sales, down from 58 percent in 1986. Clearly, we remain a highly seasonal tourist destination.
Second, geography. I defined the “traditional” coastal area as the Kittery, Kennebunk, Sebago, Damariscotta, Camden, Ellsworth and Bar Harbor shopping areas measured by the State Planning Office. In 1986, these areas accounted for 43 percent of the state’s total lodging sales, with a seasonal peak of 52 percent in August. In 2006, these areas accounted for 46 percent of total lodging sales with a seasonal peak of 55 percent in July and August. In short, the geographical concentration of tourism has increased. And, if there has been progress in moving visitors into the so-called “shoulder” seasons of early summer and early fall, it appears to have occurred more in the coastal region than in inland regions.
Figure 2
Finally, the spin-off effect. Have tourists, as measured by lodging sales, increased their spending on things other than rooms and meals? To get a rough picture of this possibility, I compared lodging sales to sales of what the Planning Office calls “other retail”—items other than food, autos, building supplies and general merchandise. It includes gift stores, antique stores, drug stores and other items for which tourists might shop.
Figure 3
Here, the evidence is less positive. In 1986, Maine had approximately $4.10 in “other merchandise” sales for every dollar of lodging sales, running from a low of $1.55 in August to a high of over $16 in December. In 2006, Maine had approximately $3.25 in “other merchandise” sales for every dollar of lodging sales, running from a low of $1.30 in July to a high of over $7 in December and January.
This is not to say that tourists are spending less now than they used to, but rather that they are not adding to Maine sales at the same rate they did in 1986. The rising incomes of Mainers and the growing importance of the service sector undoubtedly contributed to this decline. Nonetheless, these quick snap shots do point us back to our original goals and raise questions about the efficacy of our tourism development policies.
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